Are Carlsbad’s Good Old Boys Losing their Grip?

According to the city’s 2016 Survey, only one in four Carlsbad residents are “very confident” that their city leaders will make the right decisions for them. That’s down from one in three in 2014. Overall, the share of residents who have confidence in city government dropped from 84 percent to 74 percent in the last two years.

The level of satisfaction varies by ZIP Code. North Carlsbad residents (92008 coastal and 92010 inland) were almost twice as likely to lack confidence in city leadership (27% and 36%) than those living in South Carlsbad (92011 coastal: 17 percent and 92009 inland: 15 percent).

It’s a tale of two cities.

According to SANDAG’s 2016 demographic and socioeconomic estimates:

Carlsbad’s median household income is $98,000. Southerners are wealthier, at $115,000 coastal $99,000 inland, compared to Northerners, at $78,000 coastal and $81,000 inland.

The median age of Carlsbad residents is 41. Northerners are younger, at 38 coastal and 40 inland, compared to Southerners, at 44 coastal and 42 inland.

According to the SANDAG report, 20 percent of Carlsbadians identify as Latinos. For Northerners it’s 25 percent coastal (includes the Barrio), and 19 percent inland. For Southerners it’s 18 percent coastal and17 percent inland.

A total of 86,000 residents were telephoned or emailed the survey, producing 1,000 respondents.

In what can only be assumed to be a typographical error, the survey’s methodology appendix reads, “The large majority of residents is white or Caucasian (77 percent).” Only 7.4 percent are listed as “Hispanic or Latino.”

If only 74 Latinos responded to the survey, the report is useless for measuring their community’s level of satisfaction with city government.

With females representing more than half the population and Latinos one in five it’s hard to explain why Carlsbad has never had a female majority on the Council nor a single Latino councilmember.

The result of at-large elections in Carlsbad has brought the city mostly white male leaders elected by less than half of city voters. The only time Mayor Matt Hall received more than half of the votes was when he ran unopposed in 2014.

Mark Packard has been elected to the Council three times, exceeding 40% of the vote only once.

Michael Schumacher was elected to the Council in 2014 with 42% of the vote.

In 2016 Keith Blackburn won support of only 23 percent of voters, followed by Cori Schumacher, who defeated Lorraine Wood, the Council’s sole female incumbent, 20 percent to 19 percent.

There were four other candidates for the two seats, sharing 36 percent of the votes. Melanie Burkholder withdrew mysteriously from the race at the last minute, before her name could be removed from the ballot. She wound up with 5 percent of those uninformed voters.

And that’s the problem with at-large elections. Only rarely do winning candidates win a simple majority of votes. Election results, either intentionally, or unintentionally, can be influenced by phantom candidates like Burkholder and other hopefuls with very little public recognition. The result is the election of individuals with little constituent support.

According to the city’s website the Council is tentatively scheduled to address the issue of at-large elections at its May 9 meeting. It’s in response to a letter the city received from a law firm claiming Carlsbad’s at-large elections violates the California voting rights act. The letter cites three instances where Latino candidates ran unsuccessfully for City Council, yet received “significant support” from Latino voters.

The city website claims Latinos represent about 13 percent of Carlsbad’s population. That figure comes from the 2010 census. As cited above, SANDAG’s 2016 estimate is 7 points larger.

San Marcos and Vista changed from at-large to district elections last year. Given the experience of other southern California cities, the financial consequences of challenging a voting rights act lawsuit could be in the millions with the strong likelihood that the city would lose.

But the benefits of abandoning at-large elections are substantial, beginning with breaking the hold of a good old boys’ network that serves to bar gender and ethnic diversity from Carlsbad leadership.

Cori Schumacher’s election last year loosened their grip. The political outsider may not have been elected if it were not for her exceptional leadership in the grassroots campaign to defeat Measure A, protecting the Hedionda Lagoon from a billionaire LA developer.

District elections have the potential to change the go-along to get-along politics of our Village by the Sea.

Will 2018 Election Curb Carlsbad Cronyism?

There’s a sign that “times they are a-changin” in North County’s little Village by the Sea after Cori Schumacher was elected to the Carlsbad City Council in November. A leading activist in the successful campaign to stop a billionaire LA developer from despoiling the natural beauty of the Agua Hedionda Lagoon, Schumacher has already established a new model for a council member's responsibilities.

In the absence of a job description, Schumacher has written her own. Her newsletter to constituents within days of each meeting describes the issues that were up for a vote, gives background from her research on each, and explains her support or opposition. She hosts town hall meetings to invite feedback on the issues, as well as her decisions. You can subscribe here: https://www.facebook.com/CoriSchumacherforCarlsbadCityCouncil/

It’s not too early for voters to begin thinking about the three open positions for the 2018 election. In January Mayor Matt Hall and councilmember Michael Schumacher (no relation to Cori) filed forms with the city clerk, announcing their 2018 campaign fund. The mayor has $50,000 left over from his 2014 campaign. Schumacher has a balance of $13,000. Mark Packard has not yet filed, but has $8,000 left unspent.

Since we only get brief comments on their positions on the issues at council meetings, it often appears they either didn’t do their homework, are going along to get along, or are simply reflecting the wishes of their most generous campaign supporters.

Take Mayor Hall, for example. He assured Carlsbad residents that he had carefully considered Rick Caruso’s plan for developing the Agua Hedionda Lagoon property before giving it his full support, accusing opponents of being outside agitators. After voters stopped the project he admitted he had not read the plan carefully enough.

And here’s what we learned from a newspaper article a year earlier, (“Carlsbad begins analysis of strawberry fields,” Phil Diehl, San Diego Union Tribune, May 31, 2015). “Carlsbad Mayor Matt Hall said last week he hadn’t seen enough information yet to take a position for or against the project, but he likes the way the developer has worked to gain residents’ support.”

Developer Rick Caruso’s representative, Janette Littler, boasted, “We also continue to meet with Carlsbad residents to listen to their wishes and input several times a week through community meetings, bus tours to The Grove, at-home coffee discussions, and various other ways.”

It came as no surprise to Mayor Hall that Caruso’s representative was so good at her job. Hall had paid her, the President and CEO of Callidus Consulting Group of San Diego, a total of $13,000 in consulting fees, $4,000 of which was a “Victory Bonus,” for his successful 2014 election campaign. 

So much for the mayor’s claim of an unbiased consideration of a plan being put forward by his campaign consultant's employer.

A review of the mayor’s 2014 election campaign contributions raises more questions about the transparency of his decision making.

Hall received a total of $78,000 in contributions, including a non-monetary donation of $20,000 from Russell Grosse, a real estate developer who funded a “Celebrate Carlsbad Party and Fundraiser” for the candidate.

Six members of the Feuerstein family, their occupations each listed as “Principal: Mesa Centers,” in Newport Beach, LaJolla, and San Diego, contributed $200 each to Hall’s campaign. That’s not a lot of money, but curiosity about the mayor's connection with this organization, located in three cities outside of Carlsbad, prompted an Internet search.

My first hits on “Mesa Centers” led me to private schools and a senior center. Were the Feuerstein’s a family of school principals? Looking further I discovered the “Mira Mesa Shopping Centers.” Was the mayor working with another out-of-town developer on a bid to add another Carlsbad shopping center?

Then I found the “Mira Mesa Shopping Center LLC,” a real estate and development firm in Newport Beach that listed four Feuerstein’s as “members.”

Finally, I came across a July 2, 1993 LA Times story with the headline, “Developer Fined for Illegal Campaign Funding,” by Eric Bailey.

The development company was owned by one of Hall’s campaign donors, Arnold D. Feuerstein. The California Fair Political Practices Commission fined him $10,000 for laundering campaign contributions to a variety of candidates in city, county and statewide races. Feuerstein denied the charges, claiming, “some temporary help misapplied a reimbursement.”

Maybe the Feuerstein’s are simply family friends of the mayor’s but the mysterious way they are listed in his campaign funding statement raises questions about the extent of their influence on this elected official.

Half of Mayor Hall’s total of $78,000 in monetary and in-kind support for his 2014 campaign came from just seven individuals.

Corporate executives of Grand Pacific Resorts: Tim Stripe, David Brown and Tim Schinkel kicked in a total of $3,400. James Ukegawa, owner of the Strawberry Fields, listed by Hall only as a “farmer,” was good for $5,000. Chuck Smith, founder and CEO of PayPros, and his wife Maryanne, each contributed $5,000. Russell Grosse, the Real Estate Developer who hosted the $20,000 fundraiser,” brought Hall’s total financial support from the Deep Pocket Seven to $38,400.

In her most recent newsletter, Cori Schumacher raised the question of cronyism in city Council appointments to commissions. This followed concerns expressed by her constituents about Mayor Hall’s appointment of Lisa Rodman, an outspoken supporter of the Agua Hedionda Lagoon property development plan (featured in TV commercials for the mall project), and a High-Noon Rotarian, to the Carlsbad Planning Commission.

Schumacher points to the city municipal code requiring planning commission members to be appointed by a majority of the city Council, unlike appointments to other commissions, which only require a mayoral appointment to be made with the concurrence of the Council. She goes on to say, “Carlsbad's High-Noon Rotary is largely acknowledged as the central, local institution for Carlsbad's power elite, Carlsbad's "in-crowd."

Schumacher points out there were 10 applicants for the Planning Commission appointment, but none, other than Rodman, the mayor’s choice, were seriously considered. “I have requested Council examine our lack of a nomination process in an upcoming agenda. This should be done before we fill the next position on the Historic Preservation Commission.” 

Cori Schumacher is working hard to eliminate cronyism by bringing more transparency to Carlsbad’s elected leadership. But for that to happen voters will need to make the right decisions in the 2018 election.

Carlsbad Leaders Use Alternative Facts to Bring Big Brother to the City

Fifty-one stationary cameras, in 14 locations, together with six mobile devices added to the ones already installed on two police cars, will soon capture the license plate numbers of all cars passing through the Carlsbad. They’ll be submitted to a national database that tracks stolen vehicles and those involved in crimes.

At its March 14 meeting, on a 4 to 1 vote, the Carlsbad city Council approved the $802,000 plan to conduct surveillance of residents and non-residents alike.

The justification for placing everyone under suspicion until they're cleared in cyberspace was driven by a misleading police report on the city’s crime rate. Only newly-elected Council member Cori Schumacher challenged the numbers and the threat to privacy rights.

Schumacher asked Capt. Mickey Williams to describe the scope of images the cameras will capture. He said the focus would be on license plate numbers, but would also include the make and model of the car. When pressed, he conceded drivers’ faces might be caught as well.

Williams said a two-year crime rate increase, together with a Police Department study that found three fourths of those arrested were non-Carlsbad residents were the primary reasons to spend nearly $1 million on the license plate reader technology.

Only after being questioned by Schumacher did Williams provide the numbers to back up hisclaim of a rise in crime. He compared the number of crimes reported in calendar years 2015 and 2016. In calendar year 2015 he pointed to an overall increase of 19 percent in total crimes. In 2016 there was a four percent increase.

But a more accurate picture can be found by tracking the number of crimes over the last 24 months, from March 2015 through February 2017. During that period the number of crimes declined by six percent.

Pressed once again by Schumacher, Williams agreed the number of crimes reported in calendar year 2014 was among the lowest on record. That statistical outlier exaggerates the growth in crime in a single year. My numbers come from the same source Williams cited, ARJIS, the Automated Regional Justice Information System.

The mayor, who has already filed with the city his Matt Hall for Mayor 2018 Committee, carrying forward the $50,000 campaign war chest remaining from his 2014 election, coached Williams to agree with him that the alleged rise in crime was caused by California’s early release felons residing in and around Carlsbad.

Mayor Hall: “Any information on early release individuals in or about this area?”

Williams: “I can’t give you a number, but anecdotally officers say there’s been an increase in the city. But the actual number is relatively low.”

Hall: “You also said that most criminals are from outside the city. How many early release prisoners are in San Diego County?”

Williams: “I can’t say. The number is constantly changing.”

Hall: “But it is significant?”

Williams “Yes, and there are theories it’s affected the crime rate.”

Hall: “There is a direct correlation.”

Williams: “Yes.”

Hall’s questions, and Williams’s answers, suggest neither has read the latest study of California’s prison release program, “Mass reduction of California prison population didn’t cause rise in crime, two studies find,” (Washington Post, Tom Jackman, May 18, 2016) “Criminology professors Jody Sundt, Emily J. Salisbury and Mark G. Harmon, found that an astounding 17 percent reduction in the size of the California prison population, had no effect on aggregate rates of violent or property crime.”

The mayor also fails to distinguish between correlation and causation. There’s a direct correlation, for example, between the beating of drums and the reappearance of the sun after a total eclipse.

 

Hall has no evidence to support his claim that ex-cons living in or around the city have caused a rise in crime. He’s just beating his drum of preconceived notions.

To his credit, Council member Mark Packard asked Williams, “Do you have data on how these cameras have solved crimes?”

Williams replied, “We don’t have that data, what we do know from our discussions with agencies that have these is that they’re able to intercept criminals before crimes have occurred.”

Packard: “Do we have data on what percent that happens? In meetings with the community they’d want to know what percent improvement there might be?”

Williams: “No, we don’t have that information.”

Packard got no answers to his questions, but voted for the costly program anyway, explaining that a one-time investment would be cheaper than employing more permanent police officers. “My concern,” he added, “is that five new officers would cost a million dollars a year!”

Council member Keith Blackburn asked Williams if citizens could request information from the license plate readers. Williams replied that the Freedom of Information Act does not allow that now, since the data is considered, “law enforcement investigative files,” but that the California Supreme Court is currently considering a case to address that question.

Blackburn, a retired police officer, was the most enthusiastic supporter of the plan. Putting aside privacy issues and cost, he called it, “a great deal if it solves one crime.”

But it appears Anaheim, California may have gotten a better deal. At its March 22, 2016 meeting the city Council authorized a purchase order to Vigilant Solutions, the same company that will store Carlsbad’s LPR records, in the amount of $69,994.80. That’s $7,000 per camera, compared to Carlsbad’s $14,000 apiece for 57 units.

The Council’s rubber stamp approval of the million-dollar plan, the final action item of a five-hour meeting, with only one newly-elected Council member raising questions about a cost benefit analysis and potential for success, with only a small number of residents who survived the length of the meeting to raise privacy issues, smacks of the same way of doing business when billionaire developer Rick Caruso came to town a couple of years ago with his plan to save the Strawberry Fields by destroying the tranquil beauty of the city’s Aqua Hedionda Lagoon.

It also suggests how important next year's city Council election will be.