According to the city’s 2016 Survey, only one in four Carlsbad
residents are “very confident” that their city leaders will make the right
decisions for them. That’s down from one in three in 2014. Overall, the share
of residents who have confidence in city government dropped from 84 percent to
74 percent in the last two years.
The level of satisfaction varies by ZIP Code. North Carlsbad
residents (92008 coastal and 92010 inland) were almost twice as likely to lack
confidence in city leadership (27% and 36%) than those living in South Carlsbad
(92011 coastal: 17 percent and 92009 inland: 15 percent).
It’s a tale of two cities.
According to SANDAG’s 2016 demographic and socioeconomic
estimates:
Carlsbad’s median household income is $98,000. Southerners
are wealthier, at $115,000 coastal $99,000 inland, compared to Northerners,
at $78,000 coastal and $81,000 inland.
The median age of Carlsbad residents is 41. Northerners are
younger, at 38 coastal and 40 inland, compared to Southerners, at 44 coastal
and 42 inland.
According to the SANDAG report, 20 percent of Carlsbadians
identify as Latinos. For Northerners it’s 25 percent coastal (includes the
Barrio), and 19 percent inland. For Southerners it’s 18 percent coastal and17
percent inland.
A total of 86,000 residents were telephoned or emailed the
survey, producing 1,000 respondents.
In what can only be assumed to be a typographical error, the
survey’s methodology appendix reads, “The large majority of residents is white or Caucasian (77 percent).”
Only 7.4 percent are listed as “Hispanic or Latino.”
If only 74 Latinos responded to the survey, the report is useless
for measuring their community’s level of satisfaction with city government.
With females representing more than half the population and
Latinos one in five it’s hard to explain why Carlsbad has never had a female
majority on the Council nor a single Latino councilmember.
The result of at-large elections in Carlsbad has brought the
city mostly white male leaders elected by less than half of city
voters. The only time Mayor Matt Hall received more than half of the votes was
when he ran unopposed in 2014.
Mark Packard has been elected to the Council three times,
exceeding 40% of the vote only once.
Michael Schumacher was elected to the Council in 2014 with
42% of the vote.
In 2016 Keith Blackburn won support of only 23 percent of
voters, followed by Cori Schumacher, who defeated Lorraine Wood, the Council’s sole
female incumbent, 20 percent to 19 percent.
There were four other candidates for the two seats, sharing 36
percent of the votes. Melanie Burkholder withdrew mysteriously from the race at
the last minute, before her name could be removed from the ballot. She wound up
with 5 percent of those uninformed voters.
And that’s the problem with at-large elections. Only rarely
do winning candidates win a simple majority of votes. Election results,
either intentionally, or unintentionally, can be influenced by phantom candidates
like Burkholder and other hopefuls with very little public recognition. The
result is the election of individuals with little constituent support.
According to the city’s website the Council
is tentatively scheduled to address the issue of at-large elections at its May
9 meeting. It’s in response to a letter the city received from a law firm
claiming Carlsbad’s at-large elections violates the California voting rights
act. The letter cites three instances where Latino candidates ran
unsuccessfully for City Council, yet received “significant support” from Latino
voters.
The city website claims Latinos represent about 13 percent
of Carlsbad’s population. That figure comes from the 2010 census. As cited above,
SANDAG’s 2016 estimate is 7 points larger.
San Marcos and Vista changed from at-large to district elections
last year. Given the experience of other southern California cities, the
financial consequences of challenging a voting rights act lawsuit could be in the
millions with the strong likelihood that the city would lose.
But the benefits of abandoning at-large elections are
substantial, beginning with breaking the hold of a good old boys’ network that serves
to bar gender and ethnic diversity from Carlsbad leadership.
Cori Schumacher’s election last year loosened their grip.
The political outsider may not have been elected if it were not for her exceptional
leadership in the grassroots campaign to defeat Measure A, protecting the
Hedionda Lagoon from a billionaire LA developer.
District elections have the potential to change the go-along to get-along politics of our Village by the Sea.